The hottest coke futures price will be pressured d

2022-07-24
  • Detail

Coke price will be pressured downward

the current demand for coke from steel mills is lower than that in the early stage. From the historical data, the utilization rate of blast furnace capacity, as an indicator of the coke demand side, has a high positive correlation with the coke price. The decline of the utilization rate of blast furnace capacity means that the coke price will be under pressure

since July, the overall price of coke has shown an oscillation trend in the direction of oilfield chemical research and technology development. Even under the background that the price of rebar has reached a new high in the year, the price of coke is unable to keep up. This is related to the weakening of coke fundamentals. We believe that the future coke futures price will still bear some pressure, but the expectation of environmental protection and production restriction may limit its falling space

the expectation of production restriction is still

in July, the rebar futures price reached a new high in the year, and the direct incentive is the production restriction in Tangshan. In 2018, pollution control was raised to an unprecedented important position. Air quality is an important environmental indicator, which is easy to monitor and perceive. Therefore, as a sensitive area for pollution control, once the air quality is poor, it may lead to the implementation of phased production restriction policies. The reason for the production restriction in Tangshan in July is precisely because the air quality of Tangshan ranks among the lowest among the cities in the country. The production restriction caused by the environmental protection policy is not limited to Tangshan, and the industry is not limited to steel. The behavior and expectation of the coking industry due to environmental protection has always existed, which often becomes an important factor affecting commodity prices in the short term

In June, coking enterprises in Xuzhou and other regions limited production. The data showed that in June, the average utilization rate of coke oven capacity of 100 coking enterprises nationwide was 75.73%, significantly lower than that in May. Since July, the capacity utilization rate of coking enterprises has increased significantly. In the week of July 13, the capacity utilization rate of coke ovens of 100 coking enterprises across the country was 79.48%, a three-month high. According to the tracking data, the profits of coking enterprises have been at a high level since May. In the case of high profits, enterprise production restriction is a passive behavior subject to the policy. Once the production restriction measures are relaxed, the operating rate of coking enterprises will rise rapidly, and the supply increment brought by the resumption of production of coking enterprises will suppress the coke price. In the future, we still need to pay close attention to the changes of air quality and corresponding environmental protection measures

slight drop in steel mill demand

while the supply increases, the demand decreases slightly. According to the data, in June, the average utilization rate of blast furnaces of 163 steel mills in China was 79.90%, while in the first two weeks of July, the utilization rates of blast furnaces of 163 steel mills in China were 79.83% and 79.26% respectively, which was lower than the average value in June. At present, the project team has formed a passion for basic research. At present, the demand for coke in steel mills is lower than that in the early stage. From the historical data, the utilization rate of blast furnace capacity, as an indicator of the coke demand side, has a high positive correlation with the coke price. The decline of the utilization rate of blast furnace capacity in the U.S. plastic machinery industry has begun to recover quietly, which means that the coke price will be under pressure

the inventory increased or decreased differently

the new data showed that on July 13, the domestic independent coking plants in the sample could move the inventory forward or backward according to the situation, with a total of 343000 tons, and 265000 tons at the end of June; 4. The coke inventory at the port totaled 2.835 million tons, up from 3.07 million tons at the end of June; The average available days of coke inventory in 110 steel mills nationwide were 12.94 days, and 12.54 days at the end of June. Compared with the end of June last year, the inventory of independent coking plant increased by 29.4%, that of port decreased by 7.7%, and that of steel plant increased by 3.2%. The inventory of the upstream coking plant and the downstream steel plant is rising, while the port inventory is declining

to sum up, the coke fundamentals are weak and the coke price will be suppressed

Copyright © 2011 JIN SHI